Ok I may have found the issue but I have no idea how to fix it:
The log says it is running the install from:
C:\Windows\system32\config\systemprofile\AppData\LocalLow\Sun\Java\jre1.6.0_29\jre1.6.0_29.msi
If I go to this location while the first dialog is up (Welcome) this above location is blank. So the MSI appears to not exist.
If I go to:
C:\Users\jlawson\AppData\LocalLow\Sun\Java\jre1.6.0_29
There is an msi file but I think this is left over from my local install.